Random flotsam from the shattered windmills of my mind

August of the Year 3017 of the Third Age - Aragorn loses track of Gollum.

Gandalf knew that Bilbo's ring was not just another "magic ring". Tolkien writes about this in the chapter "Shadows of the Past" in The Fellowship of the Ring: After the events of The Hobbit, Gandalf pestered Bilbo to tell him the true story about how Bilbo obtained the Ring. Bilbo admitted that he did not just "find it" but had "won it" from Gollum. Gandalf instantly knows that if Gollum were ever to leave his Misty Mountain lair, he'd head for the Shire.

That is just what has happened. As Gandalf learns at some point later on, Gollum left his Misty Mountains lair in 2944 looking for "Baggins" and whatever the "Shire" was. As he passed east through Mirkwood, the Wood Elves began tracking him. He was an evil thing, killing the small, the frightened, the young. But they largely left him alone.

Gollum made it to the lakeside village of Esgaroth and even into reoccupied Dale. He learns who "Baggins" is, what the "Shire" is, and where the Shire is located. He passes west through Mirkwood, with the Wood Elves once more tracking him.

Gollum reached the River Anduin in 2951. However, that same year, Sauron openly assumed control of Mordor. He began rebuilding Barad-Dûr, and Mt. Doom erupted for the first time in living memory. Three Nazgûl occupied Dol Guldur, which Sauron had abandoned a decade earlier. The One Ring's effect on him led Gollum to turn his attention to Mordor in his search for the One Ring, assuming Sauron had it.

The Wood Elves alerted Gandalf to Gollum's wanderings, but Gandalf loses interest in him once Gollum heads south.

In 2953, the White Council met for the last time. Saruman tells them how Isildur attempted to take the Ring north and was killed at the Gladden Fields. He also lies, and says the Ring has passed down the river into the sea.

Once he reached Mordor, Gollum began searching for a way in. He likely found several in the northern Ered Lui (Mountains of Ash) and western Ephel Dúath (Mountains of Shadow). By 2980, he had discovered the Pass of Cirith Ungol. He learned about Shelob, discovered how she trapped people, and learned how to avoid her using the parallel tunnels dug by orcs.

Bilbo Baggins' farewell birthday feast was held on 22 September in the Year 3001 of the Third Age. That is when Gandalf began to suspect that Bilbo's ring was the One Ring. In October, he consulted with Aragorn, and the Ranger guard on the Shire was doubled.

Gandalf naturally assumes that Gollum will head for the Shire. Aragorn, and probably Gandalf, spent the time between 3001 and 3004 searching the east and west sides of the Misty Mountains and Eriador (the area between the Shire and the Misty Mountains) for Gollum. But he cannot be found.

Gandalf visited the Shire again in 3004. He did so every few months until September 3008. Perhaps he believed Gollum to be close by?

In 3009, Gandalf and Aragorn began searching for Gollum along the River Anduin, in the forest of Mirkwood, on the plains of Rhovanion, and even inside Mordor. Perhaps, at last, they realized Gollum would head for Mordor and not the Shire in search of the One Ring.

Some time between 3009 and 3016, Gollum became convinced that Sauron did not have the One Ring. Gollum was inside Mordor and about to leave when he was captured by Sauron. He was tortured endlessly, but babbled through most of it. Only two words seem important: "Shire" and "Baggins".

Sauron knows what the Shire is. Baggins is a Hobbit name. But what do the words mean?

By my calculations, Sauron released Gollum on or just before 13 December 3016. (Gollum believes he managed escape.) He exited Mordor via the Pass of Cirith Ungol, made his way north through Ithilien, and then headed north-ish through the Dead Marshes. It's 75 miles from Mt. Doom to the Pass at Cirith Ungol. It's 26 miles from the Tower of Cirith Ungol to the Cross-Roads, and 150 miles from Minas Morgul to the Dead Marshes. That's a total of 250 miles.

A human being walks at an average pace of 2 miles per hour. Gollum is trying to avoid being caught, so he will move at no more than a mile an hour. He moves at night, and in winter that gives him 10 hours a day to move. He makes it from Mt. Doom to the Dead Marshes in 25 days.

Aragorn captured him in the Dead Marshes, probably on 8 January 3017, and brought Gollum to Thranduil in Mirkwood. It's 450 miles from the Dead Marshes to Mirkwood. Moving at a human walking pace, they could make 20 miles a day. It will take them 23 days.

Aragorn and Gandalf then questioned Gollum. Frustrated with Gollumn's lies and babbling, Gandalf threatened to burn Gollum alive. Gollum finally told his story from the finding of the One Ring to his loss of the Ring to Bilbo. Gollum did not tell it any further, but Gandalf guesses that Gollum gained access to Mordor, was captured, and tortured. (Gollum repeatedly licks his fingers, as if suffering from pain.) Amid Gollum's threats and lies, Gollum lets slip that he used the words "Shire" and "Baggins" under torture.

How many days did Gandalf torture Gollum at Mirkwood? No one knows. But let's guess and say two weeks (14 days).

Gandalf turns Gollum over to the king of the Wood Elves, Thranduil, who imprisons him.

Gandalf rushes off to Minas Tirith. He has to find a way to confirm that Frodo's Ring is the One Ring. If it isn't, then Frodo and the Shire are safe.

The forest of Mirkwood is 200 miles wide. It's 50 miles from the border of Mirkwood to the Old Ford. The Elves probably allowed him an Elvish horse. Now, a normal horse can trot at 20 miles per hour, but it needs at least an hour's rest after every hour of trotting. An Elvish horse could probably double that, although it, too, will still needs breaks. Actual travel time is just over 6 hours, but that doubles with breaks. Gandalf can probably get most of the way across Mirkwood in one day before having to stop for the night. It'll be three or four hours the next day to make it to Old Ford.

It's another 600 miles downriver to Minas Tirith. Boating down the Anduin is the fastest way to travel. The Fellowship moved 35 miles per day. If Gandalf moves at fast, it would take him another 18 days to reach Minas Tirith.

This means that Gandalf reaches Minas Tirith on 5 March. He reads the scroll of Isildur, and learns how to identify the One Ring. How many days did Gandalf stay in the archives at Minas Tirith? No one knows. But let's guess and say two weeks (14 days).

Gandalf now returns to the Shire, deeply worried that Bilbo's ring is the One Ring. The distance from Minas Tirith to the Shire is about 925 miles. Gandalf walks. Although the average human being moves at 2 miles per hour, Gandalf might be able to double that. Therefore, he could cover 40 miles a day. The journey to the Shire will take him 24 days.

Gandalf reaches Hobbiton on April 12, 3017. This is the first firm date that Tolkien actually shares with the reader. I've had to back-calculate the dates of events into December 3016 from this point.

The wizard has been absent for almost a decade. He and Frodo spend the night talking about events happening elsewhere in the world. In the morning, Gandalf tells Frodo the history of the One Ring, and Gollum's story. Gandalf has Frodo toss the Ring into the fire, revealing the Elvish writing on it. This confirms that this is the One Ring. Gandalf tells Frodo to that he will return to help him on his journey to Rivendell.

Meanwhile, the Mirkwood Elves have taken pity on Gollum, and begin allowing him to spend some time each day outdoors. He was always under constant guard, but it seems a bit unnecessary. He is terrified of the sun, and hides in the shadows all day under the trees.

On June 20, 3017, the Elves are attacked by orcs while outside with Gollum. Gollum escapes. This is the second firm date that Tolkien gives the reader. I can now calculate events after this date.

We know that Gollum fled west through Mirkwood and then south along the River Anduin. But somewhere between the Gladden Fields and Lórien, Gollum cuts west toward the Misty Mountains. So let's estimate him walking 200 miles south along the Anduin, and then 50 miles west to get to the Misty Mountains. Moving slow to avoid detection, he makes 10 miles a day. That's a 50 day journey.

Aragorn is not in Mirkwood when Gollum escapes. He is likely in Eriador. It would take the Wood Elves a day and a half to reach Old Ford, and another day and a half to make it to central Eriador. Let's assume they spend three or four days searching for Aragorn. Then it's a three-day ride brought back to Mirkwood.

Aragorn this means Aragorn is 10 days behind Gollum. He's tracking, so he won't move any faster than Gollum.

Gollum found the River Celebrant on August 9, took it west up into the mountains, and entered Moria on August 17. He likely entered the city right away, because orcs were patrolling the woods and because he could get away from the sun.

Aragorn, however, loses track of Gollum once Gollum began his westward trek toward the mountains. Say, August 16.

Gollum may have taken some weeks to pass through Moria. He didn't know the way, he wanted to avoid orcs at all costs, and he probably quickly realized that there was something far more dangerous in the city (although he would not have known it was a Balrog).

When he finally reached the West-gate, he could not get out.

Gollum lingered in Moria until January 13, 3018, when the Fellowship opened the door and entered Moria. At that point, he realized that someone in the group had the One Ring. He could sense its power nearby.

Yes, the Ring wanted to get back to its master...

Just what will the Skydance merger achieve for Paramount, CBS, and Nickelodeon?

Last month, Paramount cut $500 million in costs and sold parts of the company that aren't central to its strategy. The company is exploring joint ventures with other firms that could reduce costs (and profits) further.

David Ellison is the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison.

A nepo baby and college dropout, he tried acting but it didn't pan out. So he became a producer, founding Skydance in 2010 with daddy's money.

Film franchises which Skydance produces include Mission: Impossible (with Bad Robot), Jack Reacher (with TC Productions), Star Trek (with Bad Robot), G.I. Joe (with Hasbro and MGM), Jack Ryan (with Di Bonaventura Pictures), Terminator, and the most recent Transformers (with Di Bonaventura Pictures and Hasbro).

Skydance has a much less stellar track record with television. Its biggest hit is the almost decade-old Grace & Frankie with Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin. It has also produced Altered Carbon, Jack Ryan, Reacher, and Foundation.

It has a number of sci fi and fantasy shows in development, including WondLa, Terminator Zero, Neuromancer, Sword Art Online, Ring Shout, a Lady Jaye spin-off from G.I. Joe, Hotel del Luna, and Steins;Gate.*

Skydance Animation released the 2022 film Luck. After John Lasseter was fired from Pixar for sexual harassment, Skydance Animation picked him up as their CEO. When Brad Bird left Pixar, Skydance snatched him up as well.

Skydance Animation immediatedly signed a distribution deal with Netflix. It will release the musical fantasy film Spellbound, the magical forest buddy film Pookoo, and Bird;s sci fi noir Ray Gunn.

Jeff Shell, former chief executive of NBCUniversal, will be president of the new company. He was fired from NBCUniversal last year after an anchor at CNBC lodged a sexual harassment complaint against him. (Notice something? Skydance hires lots of harassers.)

Ellison says he will continue Paramount's attempt to create joint ventures, and may bring in a partner on Paramount+. He also wants to add personalization features to the streaming service.

He also said he'll continue to cut costs.

* - WondLa and Terminator Zero are animated series. Neuromancer, Sword Art Online, Ring Shout, the Lady Jaye spin-off from G.I. Joe, Hotel del Luna, and Steins;Gate will be live-action.

I saw one of his heads as if it had been wounded, and his wound was healed. And the whole earth was amazed and followed after the beast.

Revelation 13:3

July 14, 1999 – The Blair Witch Project premieres!